7/7/2023 0 Comments Hurricane track predictionsResearchers had amassed evidence that such a change in resolution could improve forecasts in storm intensity, something that hadn’t improved in two decades. Gall explained that the resolution, that is, the spacing of the points on the map to which the weather data is attached, was increased to 3 km from the previous 9 km. This change alone appears to be improving the accuracy of hurricane tracks from the weather prediction models by 20 percent, Gall said.Īnother big change, implemented in June, affected the regional models, the models that zero in on more localized storm effects after the global models determine the general track. One major change, explained Robert Gall, technical development director for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, had to do with how the data is extrapolated between the real-world points at which it was collected to determine the data at points on the grid, with statistics on the accuracy of previous runs of the model fed in to adjust those extrapolation calculations. That’s when new algorithms for data assimilation-the process by which all the temperature, humidity, wind, and other data collected by aircraft, weather balloons, satellites, and ground stations is translated into evenly spaced points on a grid of the world for the prediction models-began being used in operational weather models. (Other countries run their own models for example, Europe has a model called the ECMWF Model and the United Kingdom has UKMET Office Model.) Adding that detailed data from inside the storm, and other advances, meant that the 48-hour forecast of Hurricane Irene was just as accurate as a 24-hour forecast had been a decade earlier.Īnd the advance forecast of Hurricane Sandy, now heading for the east coast of the United States, should be even more accurate, thanks to a couple of advances in modeling that earlier this year moved from the research laboratories into operational use as part of the U.S. Last year for the first time, in modeling Hurricane Irene, the National Weather Service was able to incorporate data from flying planes through the storm directly into the simulations of the storm’s progress. National Weather Service set ambitious goals-to improve the accuracy of forecasts of hurricane tracks and intensity by 20 percent by 2014 and by 50 percent by 2019. Energy Information AdministrationĮxtremely useful source of storm surge data, including interactive maps, peak surge maps and data.In 2009, the U.S. and Gulf of Mexico Energy Infrastructure with Real-time Storm Informationįrom the U.S. Satellite images for tropical Atlantic and CaribbeanĪtlantic hurricane season and tropical storm archives – pages from previous years with details of each storm of each season. United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Projectįrom the Tropical Meteorology Research Project at Colorado State University and the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University Landfall probabilities for hurricanes and tropical storms If you would like to add your forecast information please contact us. Where a forecast team has specified a range we have displayed the mid-point of that 2022 hurricane forecast. The 2022 hurricane forecast table will be updated throughout the year as updates are published and storms occur. These 2022 hurricane season forecasts provide a range of views and forecasts for the 2022 hurricane season from leading meteorologists. AlexĢ022 Hurricane Season Forecasts & Predictions Hurricane and tropical storm tracking mapĪs 2022 hurricanes and tropical storms form in the Atlantic basin or Caribbean each tropical storm name will become active and link to more information.
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